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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."